The big question – what will the weather be like?

Rob / 13.04.2002

For this race more than most the weather is critical, and things are looking good at present. At the first briefing Race Director Steve Watkins commented: “Right now the conditions are ideal, it’s as perfect as we could hope for.�

While the racers have been going through their skill testing, including a quick trip up into Coire Cas to practice putting on crampons and ice axe arrest , the sun has been shining intermittently and the scene at the tented village has been relaxed. It could have been very different – it can be very wet and cold here, and sometime during the race it’s likely to be! The weather in the mountains can be deadly, windspeed across the Caringorms plateau can often reach in excess of 100 m.p.h. and getting caught in a blizzard up there is a survival situation. Fortunately, the forecast ahead shows no major storms though.

That’s a relief both to the racers and the organisers, who have had a difficult job planning a winter race here precisely because the conditions are so unpredictable. They have had to plan for every contingency and the weather is the main reason the course is a ‘checkpoint matrix’, so they have the option to change it as short notice if the weather gets bad.

For the parts of the course out of the mountains it’s not going to look like winter race, the snow line only starts at 700m, but hypothermia will still be a risk, especially if it’s wet. This morning the tented village was covered in frost, and it’s been freezing most nights even at down near sea level and these conditions will freeze the snow higher up making use of crampons essential. At present (16.00 Saturday 13th) the forecast ahead is:

Sunday 14th . Cloudy with a band of patchy rain moving slowly eastwards during the morning, then becoming drier and brighter in the afternoon. There could be a little sleet or snow over the high tops from time to time.

VISIBILITY / CLOUD BASE: Visibility will be reduced during any rain, but will become good later in the day. Overcast cloud in the morning and early afternoon at 600m (2000ft), but bases will rise to around 900m (3000ft) in the afternoon.

WIND / TEMPERATURE / FREEZING LEVEL: Winds will stay fairly light, from the west with speeds around 10 to 15 miles per hour. Summit temperatures will be around minus 1 or 2 Celsius and the freezing level will be at 600m (2000ft).

GENERAL OUTLOOK

Monday 15th Mist, fog and frost will clear quickly in the morning with a fine and sunny day across the country. Winds will be light so it will feel warm in the sunshine with top temperatures inland around 13 or 14 Celsius. Coastal areas though will have onshore breezes and temperatures nearer 9 or 10 Celsius. Many places will have clear periods overnight and this will allow temperatures to dip towards freezing. In the west though cloud amounts will increase as moderate southerly winds bring outbreaks of rain to western coastal areas after midnight.

Tuesday 16th Bright or sunny start for the East mainland. However cloudy weather with rain in the west will spread slowly east during the day. The rain will turn showery through the afternoon and there could well be some rather heavy showers which will last well into the night. However parts of the Northeast may remain dry with some clear intervals through the night. Winds will very slowly becoming moderate or fresh southerly and temperatures will reach 10 to 13 Celsius by day, falling to 5 Celsius overnight though perhaps a degree or two lower in parts of the northeast.

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