Decisions , Tactics and Making Your Own Luck

Rob Howard / 11.11.2016

Somewhere on an expedition course there is always a tough trekking leg, and more often than not it is a deciding factor at the sharp end of the race.  Overnight and this morning teams are on stage 8 in the Budawangs Wilderness, which the organisers had promised would be tough and slow, with the fastest predicted times for the 45km trek being 11 hours 30 minutes.

Judging by the progress so far it is going to take at least that long for the leaders, and overnight there have some shake ups in the race order of the top 10, but the stage is anything but decisive. It’s still really close. (Dot-watching heaven!)

What remains unchanged is that Seagate lead and are chased in second place by Adventure Medical Kits (though Columbia Vidaraid were 2nd for a while at TA7).  In adventure racing terms they are still not too far apart and from what we know (partly guess) both have slept, Seagate probably for longer than AMK, and Columbia Vidaraid maybe not at all.

The early stages on days one and two were fast and ahead of predicted pace but that was bound to change.  Teams do need to sleep (they are not completely super-human), and will make more mistakes and slow as they get tired, and this morning a rain band has crossed the course as well.  Seagate were ahead of fastest schedule until the bike ride to Yadboro (stage 7), but took much longer on that ride – it was inevitable the pace would slow.

Seagate began the trek at 01.00 in the morning as well, and some teams behind them will have taken the tactical decision to sleep at the TA rather than move off in the dark.  A lot of top teams prefer not to sleep at transition as it can be noisy with a lot of disturbance, but the race here has set up sleeping areas for them which are strictly out of bounds for all officials, followers and media – a simple idea and a good one.

The teams that moved up in the top 10 overnight are those you might expect – AR World Series winners, past champions and those highly ranked in the ARWS.  Class and experience will show through and so Naturex (France) and Painted Wolf (RSA) have moved up, as have Columbia Vidaraid (USA) and Thule Adventure (SWE).  

Adventure Medical Kits have made a couple of navigational mistakes in the pursuit of Seagate, as have some of the other leaders at different times, while Seagate seem to have taken a flawless route so far. It’s often said the team that makes the least mistakes will win and in such a close race even a series of minor navigational errors can add up. 

Luck comes into it too sometimes.  It’s reported that Martin Flinta is racing with an injury and may have a broken rib, though Thule are still right up there, and Yealands (NZ) who were racing well in the lead group have now withdrawn with a damaged wheel they are unable to fix.  After the trek there is another long bike stage and you have to wonder how much bike damage the hike-a-bike did and whether mechanical problems will occur with other teams.  Having said that the best do ’make their own luck ‘, and it is usually the same teams  who come out on top ...

The Transition at the end of the trek in the Neriga Hotel and bar so teams will be aiming to get some hot food there before pushing on for the 70km bike ride.  This is predicted to be a fast stage as it’s on a road (3 hours 30 mins) and teams will be thinking ahead to the following stages, the caving and packraft descent of the Upper Shoalhaven River which has a dark zone.  Now that could be the decisive stage ...

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